National and local effects in the Italian regional elections (2018-2020). Beyond second-order election expectations?

This article investigates Italian regional elections held between 2018 and 2020 in order to assess whether, if so, what extent, present nationalized or localized features. We argue that the do not perfectly reflect expectations deriving from Second Order Elections (SOE) theory. However, they are completely ‘localized’, often mirror national climate, as captured by Reif Schmitt’s classical empirical expectations. Our contribution consists of two parts. First, we descriptively measure discuss extent which high rates volatility due local (localness) factors (nationalness). so separately inspecting produced variations electoral supply vote shares. Secondly, after reflecting on expected scope SOE theory these terms, latter component is explored test classic show that, despite profound party-system change, recent still second-order – featuring, compared legislative elections, lower turnouts reversals for large, governing parties. Moreover, top impact politics, peculiarities nonetheless clearly visible; and, regardless extreme turbulence, (mostly) follow historical trends